NIKE, Inc. (NKE) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q4 FY2026
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue Trend | Consensus: $10,846M (-3% YoY); Guidance: Q4 revenue down 2–4% YoY; North America up modestly, China down ~20% |
| Gross Margin | Consensus: 39.9%; Guidance: Q4 gross margin down 25–75 bps YoY, including -250 bps from tariffs |
| EPS | Consensus: $0.12; Guidance: "earnings to be flattish" YoY |
| Segment Performance | North America: modest growth; Greater China: ~-20% YoY; EMEA: likely mid-single-digit decline |
| Inventory & Sell-Through | Focus on inventory normalization, especially in EMEA and China; watch for commentary on sell-through trends |
| Sportswear & Classics Reset | Progress on stabilizing Air Force 1, AJ1; Dunk still being managed down; green shoots in new launches |
| Wholesale vs. Direct | Wholesale expected to grow; NIKE Direct (esp. Digital) remains under pressure |
| Cost Actions | Impact of $230M severance in Q3; further supply chain cost actions possible |
| Macro/Geopolitical Risks | Management flags Middle East disruption, oil prices, consumer behavior as potential volatility factors |
| Investor Day | Expectation for full-year and long-term guidance to be reinstated at Investor Day in Fall 2026 |
